Trust This. Rent Control Wins.

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๐Ÿ‘‹ Happy Friday! By the time you receive this, the ๐Ÿ‚ fall ๐Ÿ cooldown should be in full swing. The chi

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Trust This.

By Joseph E. Seagle, Esq. โ— Nov 18, 2022

Smart Brevityยฎ count: 4.5 mins...1241 words

๐Ÿ‘‹ Happy Friday! By the time you receive this, the ๐Ÿ‚ fall ๐Ÿ cooldown should be in full swing. The chill makes ๐Ÿ— turkey and stuffing taste better, so enjoy it while you can, and Happy Thanksgiving next week!

1 big thing: Rent control wins

Illustration of an open lock on a voting ballot.

The transportation surtax lost by over 16 percentage points, while โ€œyesโ€ votes for the rent control ordinance were 18 percentage points more than the โ€œnoโ€ votes.

Why it matters: Voters made it clear that they didnโ€™t want to spend more on sales taxes nor rent. Had the court of appeals not intervened, the rent control ordinance would be on its way to being effective on November 21.

  • As reported last week, the 5th District Court of Appeals ruled that the Orange County Board of Commissioners erred in giving voters the option to vote on rent stabilization.

  • Circuit Court Judge Ashton then ordered the Supervisor of Elections to not certify the results, regardless of how they went.

Yes, but: Many, including yours truly, never thought the ordinance would pass since it is only effective for one year, and the costs associated with implementing and enforcing the ordinance would be astronomical.

  • The Florida Realtors and the Florida Apartment Association filed suit against Orange County to challenge the ordinance.

  • The same folks also lobbied voters with postcards, television ads, social media advertising, and everything else they could use, to convince voters to vote โ€œno.โ€

If most votes had been against the ordinance, the issue would be moot because โ€” whether the supervisor of elections certified the results or not โ€” the result would be the same: no ordinance.

But 59 percent of voters said that they want an ordinance to limit rent increases for landlords who own 100 or more units in the county. The judicial branch should find it hard to ignore those votersโ€™ voices, especially when those same voters also voted to retain all of the justices who were on the same ballot.

Courts historically try to respect votersโ€™ will so long as the majority isnโ€™t voting to abrogate the constitutional rights of the minority.

  • The industry won its appeal by arguing that the ordinance violates state law. This may not be enough now that both the County Commission voted to find that there is such a housing โ€œemergency,โ€ and 59 percent of the voters agreed with the Commission. Kind of hard to argue with that many people.

Yesterday, the Orange County Board of Commissioners voted 5 to 2 to appeal to the Florida Supreme Court. The industry will need to make arguments that the ordinance violates the industry membersโ€™ constitutional rights such as the right to free speech or contract. Simply arguing a breach of a statute may not drown out the votersโ€™ voices.

The Florida Constitution has additional rights, such as the right to privacy, that the federal Constitution lacks. So it will be interesting to see what the industry comes up with and what the Supreme Court justices think of their arguments if the court agrees to hear the countyโ€™s appeal at all.

2. Orlando home sales flat

Illustration of a pair of sunglasses with a house reflecting in the lenses.

The second verse is the same as the first when it comes to statistics about Orlando home sales in September and October.

Why it matters: Higher interest rates and prices refusing to budge lower are keeping buyers on the sidelines, increasing the inventory of houses on the market.

By the numbers: The median home price in September and October remained at $365,000, and the number of sales in October was only one less than the number in September at 2,716. Inventory of available homes for sale grew by 3.5%, the eighth straight month of such rising inventory numbers, growing closer to a more โ€œbalancedโ€ number.

  • But that is still only 2.6 months of supply of homes.

  • Thatโ€™s about half of the way to what is considered a balanced market for buyers and sellers.

The wildcard in all of the numbers is the flooding from Hurricane Ian and the winds from Hurricane Nicole which took some homes out of the market while creating a need for more houses from those who lost their homes in the storms.

The bottom line: The average mortgage interest rate is bobbing up over 7% and then back down each week. When that number settles down and buyers grow accustomed to seeing it that level (and forget about the 3% days), then we should start seeing more hills and valleys in the currently flat numbers.

Go deeper: Orlando Regional Realtor Association Monthly Market Report

3. What passed by

San Francisco rowhouses with dollar signs floating above them
  1. When will prices hit rock bottom, and which housing markets will be most resilient? BiggerPockets

  2. Speaking at the National Association of Realtors conference in Orlando last week, the organizationโ€™s chief economist opined that โ€” so long as interest rates stay around seven percent โ€” home prices wonโ€™t collapse and could continue rising. National Mortgage Professional.

  3. California has the most mortgage-free homes, but two Florida counties hold the top spot nationwide as having the most mortgage-free homes. Bloomberg

  4. Real estate teams of all sizes generate average margins that are twice those of average brokerages. Maybe itโ€™s time for the industry to embrace the concept of teams instead of trying to regulate them out of existence. Real Trends

  5. As a follow-up on my earlier post about MV Realty in Palm Beach County, it looks like the North Carolina Attorney Generalโ€™s office is investigating the companyโ€™s practices after the NC Real Estate Commission and the Better Business Bureau, giving the company a โ€œBโ€ rating, noted that there is a consistent pattern of complaints. WTVD ABC 11

4. Pic of the day

Night scene of orange glowing sky across a bridge and behind a building
Artemis's launch over 50 miles away lit up the eastern sky

Tuesday morning, I was starting my walk upstairs to bed at 12:45 a.m. when an alert on my watch reminded me that NASA was scheduled to launch the Artemis 1 rocket in a few minutes out on Cape Canaveral, about 55 miles east of our house.

I pulled up the NASA live tv site on my phone to check the status. The launch was delayed a little over 45 minutes, but I was able to stay awake and stand in our backyard to see the clouds backlit by the fiery orange glow of the Artemis engines firing up at 1:47 a.m Wednesday morning.

Why it matters: Itโ€™s the first flight to the moon in decades, and the first major step to establishing a base on the moon that can be used as a stepping stone to Mars, then the outer planets, and beyond.

  • The daily planner I use to stay organized has a page where, each week, I have to write down the five things Iโ€™m grateful for. This week, Iโ€™ll write that Iโ€™m thankful to have been able to see that first step with my naked eye as the rocket hit a speed of over 6,000 miles per hour, leaving our atmosphere.

The bottom line: โ€œIn daily life we must see that it is not happiness that makes us grateful, but gratefulness that makes us happy.โ€ โ€” Brother David Steindl-Rast (Monk)

This song is fitting for this week, performed by Sunny and the Black Pack, one of my favorite groups on Tik Tok and Youtube.

We hope you found this helpful โ€” any feedback is appreciated and can be shared by hitting reply or using the feedback feature below.

Be on the lookout for our next issue! ๐Ÿ‘‹

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